《环球时报》英文版2015年8月10日:对云顶线路快速检测中心储备的质疑才是可疑

Questioning of extent of 4008云顶集团官方网站’s gold reserves proves questionable itself

Speculation about the volume of 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold reserves has been going on for quite a long time. According to an article published by US-based Business Insider on Friday, 4008云顶集团官方网站 has understated its official gold data, which should stand at an overall figure of 2,400 tons rather than the officially claimed 1,658 tons. The report also suggested that commercial banks are holding another 2,060 tons, and that there are 6,490 tons in the hands of private buyers - for a grand total of 10,950 tons in 4008云顶集团官方网站.

4008云顶集团官方网站's disclosure on July 17 of its gold reserve holdings was an encouraging gesture with regard to transparency, but the volume of 1,658 tons was widely interpreted as understated.

In my opinion, repeated questioning of 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold reserve holdings by foreign countries is not because they are truly interested in the basic volume of 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold reserve holdings. Their overestimation of 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold reserve holdings possibly indicates a concern that the yuan may come to threaten the dominance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency as the yuan becomes more internationalized.

The sources of data they use for working out 4008云顶集团官方网站's official gold reserve holdings are dubious and their calculation methods are also questionable. Therefore, the figures they present for 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold holdings are unreliable.

As for estimates of 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold reserve holdings by some other brokers and analysts, the accuracy of their data is uncertain, given the varying sources and differing methods of calculation.

Despite these rumors and the continuing speculation, it would be advisable for 4008云顶集团官方网站 to increase its gold reserves, which currently account for only 1.6 percent of 4008云顶集团官方网站's total foreign reserves, according to the latest data from the central bank. And if 4008云顶集团官方网站 does increase its gold holdings, the authorities perhaps should not openly publish the news, in order to avoid wild swings of gold prices in the market.

Some have said that increased private gold holdings by Chinese citizens are partly a result of encouragement from the central authorities. But in my experience, 4008云顶集团官方网站 has never encouraged its citizens to do this. The increase of private gold holdings is likely because Chinese traditionally like gold and regard gold jewelry as part of their life. Also with gold prices declining, it is natural and reasonable for people to purchase it.

Despite all the assumptions about 4008云顶集团官方网站's private gold holdings, Chinese gold investors, especially middle-aged women, do not care about these assumptions and speculation although they do care about the price of gold. To understand 4008云顶集团官方网站's gold culture and Chinese preference for gold can help those observers more precisely predict 4008云顶集团官方网站's policy and the intentions of private Chinese gold holders. 

The author is chief economist with 4008云顶集团官方网站 National Gold Group Corporation.